INSIGHTS | WIND
Offshore wind is regaining momentum
and so is demand for magnets
5/11/26, 6:00 am
After years of cost inflation, supply chain disruption and slow permitting, DNV’s 2026 Energy transition outlook sees fixed offshore wind growing from 91 GW to 580 GW by 2040. We translate that buildout into sintered magnet and NdPr oxide demand.
Explore the full breakdown in the Energy Transition Outlook 2026
The offshore forecast
580 GW | 489 GW | ~13% | 30 GW |
Fixed offshore wind in 2040, up from 91 GW in 2025 | Net additions, 2026 to 2040 (~33 GW a year) | Implied compound annual growth | Floating offshore by 2040, over 120 GW by 2050 |
Fixed offshore by region, 2040: Greater China ~270 GW (~42%), Europe ~170 GW (~32%), North America 50+ GW (~11%), rest of world ~15%.
What it means for sintered magnets and NdPr oxide
Siemens Gamesa uses gearless direct-drive permanent-magnet generators across its offshore range, including the SG 14-222 at up to 15 MW per turbine. This lifts magnet content per MW compared with geared or hybrid drives but cuts mechanical wear and transmission losses.
Magnet demand (t) = MW installed x PMG share x kg of magnet per MW / 1,000
PMG share of new turbines | Sintered magnet total | Per year | NdPr oxide total | Per year |
25% | 73,350 t | 4,890 t | 26,751 t | 1,783 t |
50% | 146,700 t | 9,780 t | 53,502 t | 3,567 t |
100% | 293,400 t | 19,560 t | 107,005 t | 7,134 t |
Based on 489,000 MW of net fixed offshore additions, spread evenly over 15 years.
600 kg of sintered NdFeB magnet per MW; 29.5% NdPr in the magnet; 0.3647 t of NdPr oxide per tonne of magnet.
Floating wind would add about 6% on top. Net capacity only, so repowering is excluded.
Key insights
Energy security. Wind is decentralized, reduces import dependence and can be built domestically at scale.
Chinese OEMs. They are winning more orders outside Europe and North America, especially India and parts of the Middle East and North Africa. European OEMs stay anchored in Europe and North America.
Europe leads on share. Wind reaches about 33% of Europe’s electricity mix in 2040, the highest of any ETO region.
Demand first. Buildout to 2040 mainly meets new demand rather than displacing fossil fuels. Substantial replacement outside Europe is not expected until the 2040s.
Persistent headwinds. Grid bottlenecks, supply chain disruption, lengthy permitting, community opposition and turbulent policy have not significantly set the buildout back.
References
DNV, Energy Transition Outlook 2026, Wind chapter.
Direct drive gearless (Siemens Gamesa offshore turbine technology).
Functional Recycling and Reuse of Nd-Fe-B Permanent Magnets from Various Waste Streams for a more Sustainable and Resilient Electromobility.
Rare earth permanent magnets for the green energy transition: Bottlenecks, current developments and cleaner production solutions, ScienceDirect.
EERE Technical Report Template (29.5% NdPr in a sintered magnet).
UBS Rare Earth Forecasts Only Tell Half the Story, Adamas Intelligence.